Insights

In the INVESTMENT OUTLOOKS, we describe in copious details our macro views, explaining the number crunching and data analysis on which such views are based. OUTLOOKS are written every 2/3 months, if relevant. Further extrapolation of the market analysis in the OUTLOOKS is provided by means of our INVESTORS PRESENTATIONS, which are available upon request.

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Investment Outlooks

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Cookies

COOKIES and CHARTBOOKS are our more frequent notes: these are short communications aimed at connecting day-to-day market events/catalysts to the macro views framed in the OUTLOOKS, in either confirmation or invalidation of what was there presented. If you want to be included in these constant e-mail notes please do get in touch.

Scenarios

The aim of this series of notes is to depict a specific disruptive scenario on a medium- to long-term horizon, and analyze the shape and tempo of its economic and financial implications. The scenario narrated is one of deep market discontinuity, although its probability is anything but remote. Instead, oftentimes, it is one sitting alongside trend-line, when linearly  interpolating from recent events into the future.

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Investment Oulooks

21 Aug 2019
21 Aug 2019

Transformational Markets: History Being Made

11 Jan 2019
11 Jan 2019

A Glimpse At 2019

25 Jul 2017
25 Jul 2017

Twin Bubbles Meet Quantitative Tightening

03 May 2017
03 May 2017

Fake Markets: How Artificial Money Flows Kill Data Dependency.

17 Jan 2017
17 Jan 2017

The Future Is Wide Open: Avoid The ‘Illusion Of Knowledge’ Trap ​

 

Cookies

01 Jan 2021
01 Jan 2021

Digital Future. Use Of Digital Technology To Build Resilient Portfolios. Going Beyond 60/40 Traditional Asset Allocation.

24 Feb 2020
24 Feb 2020

Helping Blind Navigation In Broken Markets: The Cockpit Of Complexity-Based Systemic Risk Alerts

06 Nov 2018
06 Nov 2018

How To Measure The Proximity To A Market Crash: Introducing System Resilience Indicators (‘SRI’)

25 Sep 2018
25 Sep 2018

Twin Bubbles: How Stretched?

08 Jun 2018
08 Jun 2018

The Increasing Frequency of VAR-shocks is a Crash Hallmark

11 Apr 2018
11 Apr 2018

While Markets Scramble For Direction, On The Edge Of The Cliff, Turkey Cracks

12 Feb 2018
12 Feb 2018

Markets Poised At Criticality

02 Feb 2018
02 Feb 2018

The Market System Is Tight In All Directions

19 Jan 2018
19 Jan 2018

Measuring the Equity Bubble: an update of the ‘Peak PEG’ Ratio ​

11 Sep 2017
11 Sep 2017

German Bunds have never before been this expensive: the ‘Real Rate to Growth’ Ratio ​

24 Aug 2017
24 Aug 2017

The S&P has never before been this expensive: the ‘Peak PEG’ Ratio

 

Scenarios

20 Oct 2020
20 Oct 2020

The Market Economy In 2025: A Visualization Exercise

22 Oct 2019
22 Oct 2019

How To Navigate The Cliff Edge In Markets

29 Apr 2019
29 Apr 2019

Cascade Effects In Modern Undiversified Passive Markets

26 Aug 2018
26 Aug 2018

Financial Complexity & Nonlinear Dynamics

09 Jul 2018
09 Jul 2018

Analysis of Market Structure: Towards A Low-Diversity Trap

10 Jan 2018
10 Jan 2018

Fragile Markets On The ‘Edge Of Chaos’

20 Nov 2017
20 Nov 2017

Positive Feedback Loops and Financial Instability: The Blind Spot of Policymakers

07 Sep 2016
07 Sep 2016

The Last Act Begins For The EUR Peg

07 Jun 2016
07 Jun 2016

The Market Economy in 2020: a visualization exercise ​